Objective: The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of proximal caries of the distal surface of the second primary molars on the incidence of the mesial surface caries of the first permanent molars in 165 children aged 6-8 years at baseline examination. Methods: Proximal caries and its progression were diagnosed by bitewing radiographs taken at one-year interval over a period of four years. The mesial surface of the first permanent molars and the distal surface of the second primary molars were examined. Sound surfaces, caries lesions in the external and internal half of the enamel and external, middle, internal third of the dentin as well as filled extracted and exfoliated teeth were recorded. The logistic model for panel data was employed to estimate the effect of proximal caries of the distal surface of the second primary molars on the incidence of the mesial surface caries of the first permanent molars. The 95% probability level was used. Results: The results showed that the presence of proximal caries in the distal surface of the second primary molars affected significantly the development of proximal caries in the mesial surface of the first permanent molars. Age was estimated to exert a positive and highly significant impact, while sex had no effect. Conclusion: It was concluded that the presence of proximal caries in the distal surface of the second primary molars increases the risk of developing proximal caries in the mesial surface of the first permanent molars.

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